We always knew that people feel good about the world when they see a booming Main Street. We now have the data to prove it.
Analysis of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers and the WAIN Street Business Default Index (BDX) shows credit performance of very small businesses can predict the Index of Consumer Sentiment and its sub-indices– Current Economic Conditions Index and Index of Consumer Expectations. Not surprisingly, the credit performance of these engines of job creation can also improve forecasts of employment payrolls and unemployment claims. Lastly, perhaps not surprisingly if you saw the previous analysis about bank loan performance, the Solo BDX that tracks the credit performance of sole proprietors can improve forecasts of consumer credit availability.
The complete report is available here: Forecasting Consumer Confidence