Localizing Risk

A firm’s financial health determines its ability to repay debts.  The promise of big data is to incorporate an ever increasing pool of information about a firm’s financial behavior to make better predictions.  And by blending in qualitative factors such as social media chatter, big data seeks to make a quantum leap in assessing business credit …

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It’s Better in the South

The South is now the country’s most populous region and its largest economic area.  Nearly two out of five Americans live in the South and the region accounts for 51 percent of the nation’s population growth since 2010.

Business Default Volatility

Default rates vary for a myriad of reasons.  They vary over time.  They vary across geographies and industry sectors.  And they vary across business size.  Understanding this variation is important for constructing and managing credit portfolios.

Industry Default Correlations

One of the biggest challenges confronting small business lenders is the absence of data.  And ultimately that hurts small businesses via higher interest rates.  This is acutely evident in the burgeoning online lending industry.  At WAIN Street, we want to change that. 

Giving Credit Its Due – v3

In our last enhancement of the Credit Quality Map, we offered a separate map representing credit quality trends across geographies and industries.  Which prompted the question: Could we not create a single, composite map?  Yes, we can!  And here its is.

Giving Credit Its Due – v2

Our original post with the Credit Quality Map prompted a simple question: Could we also provide some information about the trend underlying each cell?  With arguably the most comprehensive database of business defaults at our disposal, the answer is “yes”.  

Giving Credit Its Due

Each month, in Taking the Pulse, we report State and Industry sector variations in default rate. The high-resolution database underlying WAIN Street’s Business Default Index affords us a unique opportunity to understand geographic and industry sector credit quality variations in greater detail.

Putting Defaults In Place

As we reported for Q4 2013, US businesses closed 2013 with the lowest default rate in four years.  We mined what is arguably the most comprehensive database of firm-level defaults—the database underlying WAIN Street’s Business Default Index—to get a better sense of business credit quality trends from before the start of the Great Recession.